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August 20, 2008
the battleground poll
There are an ocean of polls out there, but there's only one that is consistently correct. It's the Battleground Poll from the Tarrance Group. Whatever their methodology is they are always the closest in predicting the final outcome. I'm not sure why, but they don't release polls as often as Gallup and Rasmussen. I can only speculate that it's because it more expensive to get a more accurate poll.
The new Battleground Poll isn't very shocking. Senator John McCain has a one point lead over Senator Barack Obama. Going into the conventions the race is deadlocked. In 2004, the Battleground Poll taken at the exact same point in the race gave Senator John Kerry a narrow one point lead over President Bush. Given all the positive news coverage Obama has received the past two years, and President Bush's dismal approval ratings it's amazing that McCain is in a better position than the President was at this time in 2004.
Obama objects to any poll that doesn't factor in the German vote
Is Obama blowing this thing? Has the electorate changed so much the past year that these polls are missing a cultural change? Only Wednesday, November 5 will answer these questions. However, Obama has peaked. His poll numbers should jump during the convention, but that will likely be his high water mark. In another month we should have a better idea where this election is going, but the mainstream press has missed the real story this summer. The election is close and Obama is not a sure thing.
Posted by nemov at August 20, 2008 7:39 PM
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